Bardstown, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

969
FXUS63 KLMK 220704
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Well below normal temperatures are expected through the first part
  of Memorial Day weekend.

* Continuing to monitor a low pressure system late weekend into
  early next week that will bring rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms. 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
  is currently forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with the closed low
situated over the eastern Great Lakes and unremarkable NW flow
holding aloft. Another shortwave rotates through the parent trough
later today, and could be just enough of a kicker combined with
steepening low level lapse rates to squeeze out a few light showers
across the NE third of the CWA. Have some low pops to account for
that. Otherwise, the other notable sensible weather feature will be
gusty W to WNW winds this afternoon. Looks like we`ll be mixing up
into a 20-25 knot layer which should yield some occasional gusts in
the 20-30 mph range mid morning through early evening.

Temps are expected to struggle a bit again today as we sit under a
steady cool advection regime. In addition, our NE third of the CWA
will see more extensive cloud cover from the closed low to our NE.
This will also hurt temperatures in that area. Looking for low to
mid 60s for highs under the more expansive clouds, with low 70s
across our SW CWA under less cloud cover. Winds slacken tonight with
less expected sky cover. As a result, overnight lows get chilly.
Looking for low to mid 40s for most, with some upper 40s to around
50 in the typically milder locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Friday - Saturday Night...

Our region will be placed conveniently between the expansive closed
upper low over New England, and a stalled warm frontal boundary to
our SW late week into the first part of the weekend. The end result
will be a cool and dry stretch as unremarkable NW flow aloft
dominates our upper pattern. Temps will be chilly in the low and mid
40s for most to start out Friday morning, and that will continue
into afternoon highs where values only top out in the mid 60s to
around 70 thanks to steady cool advection. These values are around
10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Another chilly
night Friday night with mid 40s to low 50s across the area, followed
by Saturday highs similar to Friday. Light precipitation chances may
return as early as Saturday night as the aforementioned warm front
to our SW starts to lift back NE into our area. Models vary on the
placement a bit, but will have to carry at least some mention. Temps
also start to trend milder by this time thanks to increase sky cover.

Sunday - Monday Night...

Looking to be a more active setup for the second half of the holiday
weekend as a warm front will lift a bit northward and settle/stall
over or just south of our area. A surface low then looks to develop
over the southern Plains ahead of a digging positive tilt trough
over the central Plains, and will eject out toward our region by
later Monday into Monday night. Expect fairly widespread showers on
Sunday, mostly on the overrunning/cool side of the boundary.
Instability looks fairly meager, but will at least include some
mention of Thunder. By Monday, the surface low and it`s respective
triple point should be very near or passing through our CWA. At the
moment, it doesn`t look like we are able to establish much of an
unstable warm sector, even across our south. However, it likely
wouldn`t take much to get a little unstable in late May. Something
to watch, but not overly concerned about severe for now. Will note
the ML runs do show some lower end probabilities across our southern
half/third of the CWA. Could end up resulting in a lower outlook
from SPC, but again much will depend on getting some sort of warm
sector established. 22/00z GFS soundings show a pretty stable column
for the moment, so we`ll see. 21/12 ECMWF has a stronger surface low
that would allow for a more unstable warm sector across our south to
contrast.

Perhaps the bigger story will be rainfall amounts for the Sunday -
Monday time frame. WPC has around 1" to 2" across our area, with the
Green River Basin once again getting the heavy precip workload.
Makes sense down there closer to the stalled warm front. We`re at
the time of year where we can handle some rainfall, especially after
a few days of dry leading up to it. That being said, the river basin
will already be running high, so it could at least bring a river
flood threat along with some localized nuisance flooding concerns
down there. We`ll keep an eye on those trends as well, which is
currently going downward with the latest data.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Looks like cool and wet conditions linger through the middle of next
week as the central Plains trough closes off and settles over the
eastern CONUS. This keeps us under the influence of that feature
which will result in periods of showers and below normal temps. Look
for highs mostly in the low and mid 70s, however the north will have
the best shot at staying confined to the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions expected through this forecast cycle, with only some
mid level cloud cover to note across our northern TAF sites through
today. The other issue will be generally W to WNW winds that will
pick up intensity shortly after sunrise, and then proceed to gust
through the rest of the day. Looking at some gusts in the 20 to 30
mph range today before subsiding around sunset later this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS